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Article RSE 16001715

Probabilistic Risk-Based Security Assessment of Power Systems Considering Incumbent Threats and Uncertainties

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IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid ISSN1949-3053, vol. 7, N. 6, pp. 2890-2903, Novembre-2016.

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D. Cirio (RSE SpA) , G. Kjølle (SINTEF ENERGY RESEARCH, NORVEGIA), S. Massucco (Università di Genova), M. Sforna (TERNA S.p.A), A. Pitto (RSE SpA), E. Ciapessoni (RSE SpA)

GRID RESILIENCE 2016 - Security and vulnerabilities of the electrical system

This paper describes an in-depth security assessment methodology, based on an “extended” definition of risk (including threats, vulnerability, contingency, and impact) aimed to perform the risk assessment of the integrated power and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems.

In-depth security analyses of power systems (PSs) require to consider the vulnerabilities to natural and humanrelated threats, which may cause multiple dependent contingencies. On the other hand, such events often lead to high impact on the system, so that decision-making aimed to enhance security may become difficult. Introducing the uncertainty, the risk associated to each contingency can be evaluated, thus allowing to perform effective contingency ranking. This paper describes an in-depth security assessment methodology, based on an “extended” definition of risk (including threats, vulnerability, contingency, and impact) aimed to perform the risk assessment of the integrated power and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems. The results of the application to test cases and realistic PSs show the added value of the proposed approach with respect to conventional security analyses in dealing with uncertainty of threats, vulnerabilities, and system response.

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