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Paper RSE 16001826

Contingency screening starting from probabilistic models of hazards and component vulnerabilities

Paper

PSCC 2016 19th Power Systems Computation Conference 20-24 978-1-4673-8151-2 , pp. 297-303, Giugno-2016.

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E. Ciapessoni (RSE SpA) , D. Cirio (RSE SpA) , F. Adinolfi (Università di Genova), S. Massucco (Università di Genova), A. Pitto (RSE SpA), M. Saviozzi (Università di Genova), F. Silvestro (Università di Genova)

MERCATI ELETTRICI 2016 - Evolution of interconnected electrical systems and integration of the markets

The paper describes a probabilistic approach and a tool for contingency screening, based on short-term probabilistic models of incumbent natural or man-related threats, and on component vulnerability curves in an integrated power and ICT system.

In operational planning, researchers propose methods to assess the effect of uncertainties of power system operating condition due to forecasting errors of intermittent generation and loads. In particular probabilistic power flow methods are used to calculate the probability distributions of the voltages and the branch currents, starting from the distributions of power injections/absorptions. These uncertainties play a key role in the operational planning of power systems, as certain configurations of load and intermittent generation can cause security problems.

This paper proposes a probabilistic methodology to assess Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) among network areas, which quantifies forecast error uncertainties by applying the Point Estimate Method (PEM) combined with Third Order Polynomial Normal (TPN) Transformation. This approach is compared with a conventional NTC assessment technique and has been tested on an IEEE test system.

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