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Project SCENARI 2017

Energy and Power Systems Scenario

Power System Research


Antonella Frigerio

The document presents the scenario studies carried out to support the energy policy in the definition of the National Energy Strategy, the climate studies carried out to characterize the extreme events that most impact on the energy system and the assessment of the water footprint of the national electricity production mix according to the Life Cycle Assessment approach.

The European Union has started for some time now a decisive transition towards a safe, competitive and sustainable energy system, characterized by low emissions of greenhouse gases, an increase in production from renewable energy sources and an improvement in energy efficiency. The 2030 energy and climate policies promoted by the European Council are redesigning the map of the energy consumption, with a forecast of growth in global energy demand in the coming decades deeply inhomogeneous and localized in specific geographical areas. In this scenario, the awareness of risks and costs due to climate changes has led to the Paris Agreement, outlined in COP21, where industrialized countries have taken the commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the global warming.

In this context, the results of the Project have contributed to provide a valid support to the Italian Government at the Technical Table Vertical Scenarios of the National Energy Strategy, coordinated by the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of the Environment and Protection of the Territory and Sea, established after the Technical Table related to the Decarbonisation of Economy, coordinated by the Council Presidency. In addition to the SEN scenario, several scenarios of decarbonisation to 2050 and of the evolution of the national electricity demand, related to the five sectors in which the electricity consumptions are subdivided (agriculture, service, residential, industry and transport), were analysed. In addition, the cost of the end users' energy bill are updated every year.

The project dealt with topics that have contributed to assessing the Italian energy context. Thanks to the availability of updated and high-resolution climate simulations, it has been possible to evaluate how extreme events will increase in intensity and frequency in the coming decades, making some infrastructures more vulnerable. The theme of the water-energy nexus has been analysed with a system perspective: the water footprint of the national electricity production mix was assessed according to the Life Cycle Assessment methodological approach defined in the ISO 14046: 2014 standard. Anyway, not only the water consumptions were calculated, but also the impacts in terms of water scarcity footprint, correlated to their geographical location, were assessed. Finally, in the Project the SunRiSE portal was developed, which provides information to the energy sector operators, as well as to private citizens, useful to control the production of renewable sources.

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Frigerio Antonella